Aluminum consumption grows rapidly in new energy field
Date:2022-04-09
Aluminum consumption grows rapidly in new energy field
In the process of the country's transformation of the energy structure, emerging consumption areas are preferentially treated by national policies, and the market has certain expectations for aluminum consumption brought about by new energy industries. Here, we will split each industry in turn, and present the scale of its aluminum consumption and the increment brought by it.
In the field of new energy, aluminum is mainly used in new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. We expect that the development of domestic new energy vehicles and photovoltaics will remain stable and positive next year, with growth rates of 41% and 50%, respectively, contributing to the increase in aluminum consumption. 300,000 tons, 320,000 tons.
The new infrastructure energy Chinalco is mainly used for the construction of UHV, suburban rail and 5G base stations, of which the UHV field will contribute the main increment. According to our statistics, there are 12 projects under construction or approved this year. "The goal is to drive economic growth. UHV power grids are expected to continue to usher in incremental demand. In 2022, an additional 5,303 kilometers will be added, driving an increase of 160,000 tons of aluminum consumption, while the demand for aluminum in suburban rail and 5G base stations will increase. It is relatively small, and it is expected that the increase in contribution to aluminum demand this year will remain at 1,400 tons and 9,000 tons respectively.
Emerging consumption areas will drive an average annual increase of 790,000 tons of aluminum consumption, of which the average annual increase in aluminum consumption in the new energy sector is 620,000 tons, and the average annual increase in aluminum consumption in new infrastructure is 170,000 tons. From the perspective of emerging fields, the annual growth rate of aluminum consumption is 2.2%, which is the main growth highlight of the aluminum consumption field this year.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2021, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales will exceed 3.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that my country's new energy vehicles will reach 5 million in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%.
New energy vehicles are a bright spot in the growth of aluminum demand, mainly due to the demand for lightweight automobiles. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will grow rapidly. According to research, in 2020, new energy buses, hybrid passenger vehicles, and pure electric passenger vehicles will grow , traditional passenger cars and commercial vehicles, the amount of aluminum used in a single vehicle is 232.2kg, 198.1kg, 157.9kg, 138.6kg and 122.6kg respectively. Many documents have been issued to encourage and support the development of the auto industry, but because the leverage of residents is currently at a high level, high housing prices inhibit people’s investment and car purchases, along with the city’s encouragement of new energy vehicles (new energy vehicles in Shanghai do not need to be auctioned, and the proportion of new energy photos in Beijing Significant expansion, etc.), the production and sales of electric vehicles have made great strides with the innovation of battery technology. Even assuming that the total production and sales of automobiles remain stable, the replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles will increase aluminum consumption to a certain extent. It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles will replace fuel vehicles by about 40% in 2030. The latest monthly data is About 16%, and it is expected to remain at about 18% to 20% in 2022, and the monthly sales of new energy vehicles will reach 500,000 to 600,000.